Tesla is about to tumble off a familiar policy cliff. The $7,500 federal tax credit that juiced demand for electric vehicles in the US, Tesla’s last large, healthy market, after September 30, 2025. Tesla has been here before, but the ground underneath the company looks very different today.

Let’s dig into what happened last time, what’s changing now, and why Elon Musk is already warning shareholders of “tough quarters ahead.”

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