Tesla analyst shares pessimistic view of robotaxi fleet

Tesla analyst Gary Black shared a pessimistic view of the robotaxi fleet’s future over the weekend. Black posted on X, wondering what percentage of Tesla owners would enroll their vehicles into the company’s robotaxi fleet. 

Black predicts that less than 50% of Tesla owners will join the company’s robotaxi fleet. The main argument against including a personal vehicle in Tesla’s robotaxi fleet is that owners will be uncomfortable lending their cars to strangers.

What % of Tesla owners would accept a stream of payouts from Tesla for deploying their cars in a TSLA robotaxi network to move people/luggage around every day? At 25 trips/day x 6 miles/trip x $1/mile x 75% payout, let’s assume a TSLA owner could make $40K per year by renting…

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 22, 2024

Elon Musk has compared Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to a combination of Uber and AirBnB. While Black’s point could be valid, it might not be a major concern for Tesla. Musk has also stated that Tesla will independently add vehicles to the robotaxi fleet, separate from individual car owners. 

So, there should be enough vehicles in the robotaxi fleet to accommodate customers, even if less than 50% of Tesla owners join the robotaxi fleet initially. Plus, some Tesla owners have argued that they would not enroll their personal vehicles into the robotaxi fleet, but a secondary car instead. 

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